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Crude oil orientation has a significant impact on plastic movement
2017-05-10 10:10:06

 Crude oil orientation has a significant impact on plastic movement

From the long-term correlation between plastic and crude oil, although the overall level is low, but the recent rebound, the future orientation of crude oil will have a significant impact on the long-term trend of plastic. Plastic main contract L1401 appeared a certain adjustment, but the Mid-Autumn Festival in the 60-day moving average near the support and rebound. From the fundamentals, the probability of plastic oscillation in the future is relatively strong, investors should be based on bargain-hunting operation.
LLDPE imports are still the least
PE social inventories increased by 4.92% from the end of last month, down 3.22% over the same period last year. Sub-regional view, the South this month, the northern stock rose, but the larger increase in the north. Northern inventories increased by 11.80% from the end of last month, up 10.08% from the same period last year. Southern inventories increased by 1.55% from the end of last month and 6.54% lower than the same period last year. Overall, the inventory chain has increased, but still on a downward trend year on year.
From the PE port inventory, the number of imports in the fourth week of August to maintain a moderate level, the total amount of Hong Kong is not great. Recent port shipments faster, inventory continued to decline. Source composition, LDPE imports are still the least, LLDPE increased demand, inventory decreased significantly, HDPE inventory increased slightly. August imports were basically at the normal level, the market pressure is not. September imports may decline.
Crude oil prices strong oscillation
From the long-term macroeconomic level, the US economy rebounded steadily, the euro zone economy has bottomed out signs, the probability of systemic risk recurrence is very low, the Chinese economy in the government to increase spending under the circumstances to maintain the expected growth rate Large, so the macroeconomic factors constitute a certain support for oil prices. In the case of Iran's oil embargo has not been lifted, the global oil supply will remain tight.
Although US oil production in the shale oil and gas with the help of a substantial increase, but in view of the US "energy security" policy, not the formation of exports, so the impact on the global market supply is limited. While other countries in the short term is almost impossible to copy the United States "shale revolution". Oil prices or into the "cyclical stability, structural tension" of the times, skyrocketing and collapse has been away from crude oil. Overall, we believe that the fourth quarter oil prices or will maintain a strong oscillation pattern, the plastic down space is relatively limited, the uplink probability increases.
PE supply and demand tight balance
From the PE supply and demand data can be seen in July domestic PE production of 880,000 tons, an increase of 118,000 tons over the same period last year, an increase of 15.5%. The cumulative increase of 685,000 tons, an increase of 12.1%. In July, the apparent consumption of domestic PE was 169.62 million tons, an increase of 22.18 million tons, an increase of 15.04% over the same period last year. 1 - July accumulated 110.363 million tons, an increase of 116.11 million tons last year, an increase of 11.76%. Overall, from January to July this year, plastic production as a whole increased by 12%, while the inventory was lower than last year, apparently this year's consumption growth is more obvious.
With the cooler weather, downstream consumption is likely to recover, the plastic market is expected to maintain tight supply and demand balance, short-term difficult to quickly turn to oversupply. From January to July LLDPE major downstream industry, the production of plastic film point of view, LLDPE steady growth in demand can be guaranteed. January-July plastic film production increased by 11.5% year on year, agricultural film production increased by 20.1% year on year. Large business orders more small business orders have improved. Daily necessities operating rate is still maintained to 60% -70%. With the coming of the demand for plastic sheeting, the demand for processing enterprises increased. Due to the use of the majority of film back to the material, a substantial reduction in the return of raw materials will lead to tight supply of LLDPE material.
Equipment maintenance to reduce production
August PE petrochemical plant maintenance is still more, including Fushun Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, Liao Tong Chemical (4.84, -0.06, -1.22%) and Yanshan Petrochemical and other equipment maintenance on the market a greater impact, and other parts of Lanzhou Petrochemical and other parts due to Maintenance capacity is low or overhaul time is short, the impact on the market is weak. Maintenance capacity of a total of 3.35 million tons / year, the loss of production in the 128,100 tons. This part of the output reduction will be reflected in September, petrochemical stocks fell significantly in the near future.